Super Regional Observations
One spot remains. The balance of power is up for grabs alongside the final charter flight to Omaha in today’s Wake Forest-Florida ACC-SEC showdown. The outcome determines which of these two power conferences will have three representatives in the College World Series. Based on Super Regionals already settled both conferences are assured of a pair (SEC- LSU, Texas A&M / ACC – Louisville, FSU), but only one conference will boast a national best trio of clubs.
2017 Super Regional matchups have had it all. Lightning delays, rare blown saves, costly botched infield pop-ups, walk-off winners…even a smooth-as-silk triple play turned by Sam Houston State in a rain drenched Sunshine State. What a weekend of baseball. The weekend was so good, weather extended it until at least Monday in Gainesville. Of the 16 completed games in the Super Regional round, well over half of them featured at least one key moment which turned the contest on a dime at some point later than the 7th inning stretch.
Home teams have performed better than usual. Visiting clubs claiming Super Regionals had been a strong trend in recent years. Not so this time around. For the first time in college baseball history home clubs won the first game of every Super Regional. To this point, Cal State Fullerton is the only club to punch a ticket to Omaha from outside the friendly confines of their own ballpark. In fact, heading into today’s resumption in Gainesville, home clubs have posted an impressive 14-2 record in the Supers. To put that in perspective, no one else besides the powerhouse Titans has even managed to win a single Super Regional contest. Keep in mind, however, the three-time CWS champs were in a very familiar ballpark less than a half hour from home-and that’s with LA traffic.
Overall tourney results have been about par for the course related to the national seeds. Prior to this season there had been 144 top 8 national seeds under the current format, with 81 of them reaching Omaha (that’s a clip of 56%). This year at least half the Omaha field will be made up of national seeds, with the potential for 5 of 8 reaching the promised land. Should the Florida Gators defeat Wake Forest later today and become the fifth to pack up and head for the midwest, it would also mean national seeds would have been a perfect 5 for 5 in the Super Regional round.
College baseball is experiencing a newfound power surge. If you love the long ball, this has been your year. The 2017 edition of the NCAA tournament has already produced over 220 home runs, with the Super Regional round not quite completed. This is easily the most since the new BBCOR bat package was adopted six years ago. For evidence that offense is trending upward, look no further than the powerful season Wake Forest has put together. The Deacons had already hit an even 100 bombs heading into Gainesville for their ACC-SEC showdown with the Gators. This makes the Winston-Salem wrecking crew the first club to reach a triple-digit home run total since the new bat era began in 2011. It’s likely the tournament could see a over 250 total home runs hit before the roughly 137 potential tournament games required for someone to lift the trophy in Omaha are completed. (Here is the breakdown on number of games: If every round of the tournament goes the distance 151 contests are necessary to complete the national championship tournament. This year’s edition is on pace for somewhere between 135-139 total games based upon the four remaining “if necessary” games in the current tournament format). Whatever the final number ends up being, the tournament is looking at somewhere close to two homers per contest this season.
The best teams in the country are streaking into Omaha. Oregon State, LSU and Louisville have not lost a single NCAA tournament game. Each club is a perfect 5-0, having swept through both rounds at home. The Beavers have not lost this month, winning twenty-one consecutive dating back to an April 29th defeat at the hands of USC. Remember, this was one of only three conference losses and just four total setbacks this season for the top seeded club from Corvallis. The ‘Ville reached Omaha for the fourth time in school history on the strength of a series sweep against rival Kentucky in the weekend’s bluegrass showdown, which the ‘Cards made look easy. As for the SEC champs, a string of sixteen straight victories will be on the line at TD Ameritrade Park. This includes a perfect SEC tournament performance in Hoover which set the post-season tone.